Written in cooperation with Tigran Khzmalyan
The visit of the Vice President of the United States to Armenia and Azerbaijan in February 2026 marked an important moment in the evolving geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus. It symbolised a gradual transformation of the regional order that has largely been shaped since the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, when imperial and later Soviet rule established long-term external dominance over the region.
For Armenia, this evolving geopolitical environment creates both new opportunities and significant strategic challenges. The gradual weakening of Russia’s dominant position in the South Caucasus is opening space for a reconfiguration of regional influence and external engagement.
At the same time, the involvement of the United States reflects a broader interest in stability, connectivity and political engagement in the region. Historically, relations between Armenia and the United States have included important humanitarian and diplomatic dimensions, particularly in the early twentieth century and in the period following the collapse of the Soviet Union. At the same time, US foreign policy has traditionally demonstrated a high degree of continuity in its strategic interests, while its tactical priorities have often shifted in line with domestic political developments and changing international contexts.
The experience of different regions demonstrates that US engagement has frequently evolved over time, and in some cases has been followed by adjustments in the level or form of involvement. For small and medium-sized states, this underlines the importance of developing diversified partnerships and strong domestic institutions rather than relying on a single external security or political guarantor.
The weakening of Russia’s role in the South Caucasus is not an isolated political episode but part of a longer structural process. This shift is likely to reshape patterns of regional cooperation, economic integration and political interaction.
At the same time, Turkey and Azerbaijan have strengthened their regional roles over the past decade through infrastructure connectivity projects, energy cooperation, transport corridors and growing political coordination. Their increasing engagement with external partners, including the European Union and the United States, reflects broader regional dynamics rather than a single coordinated geopolitical strategy.
From an analytical perspective, the growing visibility of Turkish and Azerbaijani regional initiatives should primarily be understood as part of a wider competition for connectivity, investment flows and political relevance in the South Caucasus and neighbouring regions. These processes are driven by economic interests, transport integration, energy security considerations and changing global supply chains.
For Armenia, the central policy challenge is not the expansion of influence by neighbouring states as such, but the limited capacity of Armenian institutions to actively shape and benefit from emerging regional frameworks. In this context, Armenia’s long-term resilience depends on strengthening its own regulatory systems, governance standards and international partnerships, rather than reacting primarily to the strategies of other regional actors.
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Armenia’s foreign and domestic policy choices significantly shaped its regional positioning. Over successive administrations, Armenia prioritised security and political stability within existing regional arrangements, while progress on structural reforms and institutional modernisation remained limited. These choices have constrained the country’s capacity to fully benefit from emerging cooperation frameworks and economic diversification opportunities.
By contrast, several neighbouring states pursued more active strategies of economic diversification and external economic engagement. Over time, this contributed to shifting regional balances in economic connectivity and political relevance.
In recent years, Armenia has faced the challenge of redefining its strategic orientation amid rapidly changing regional dynamics. The current policy debate centres on how to move beyond short-term crisis management towards a coherent long-term development and integration strategy.
The European Party of Armenia has advocated for a legal and political framework aimed at strengthening Armenia’s European trajectory, including the adoption of legislation related to EU membership aspirations. While such initiatives signal political intent, their effectiveness ultimately depends on institutional capacity, policy coherence and sustained reform implementation.
The recent high-level visit by the Vice President of the United States clearly illustrated the continuing transformation of Russia’s role in the region. However, historical experience suggests that shifts in external influence are often followed by the emergence of new regional and international actors seeking to expand their engagement.
The increasing importance of regional infrastructure and connectivity initiatives, including TRIPP, creates both potential opportunities and risks. While such frameworks may contribute to economic development and regional integration, their long-term impact on Armenia will depend on the country’s ability to secure transparent governance arrangements, balanced participation mechanisms and effective protection of national economic and security interests.
Discussions surrounding new regional cooperation frameworks also highlight the importance of clearly defined security and political guarantees. Infrastructure and connectivity initiatives alone cannot substitute for comprehensive institutional reform and credible long-term strategic partnerships.
From a policy perspective, Armenia’s strategic objective should be to embed its regional engagement within a broader European integration trajectory, focused on institutional reform, regulatory convergence and economic diversification. This approach would allow Armenia to engage constructively with all regional partners, including Turkey and Azerbaijan, while maintaining a clear long-term orientation towards the European Union.
In this context, deeper cooperation with the European Union remains one of the most important instruments for strengthening Armenia’s institutional resilience, governance standards and economic competitiveness. A sustainable European pathway requires not only political declarations but also consistent implementation of reforms, administrative capacity-building and long-term policy alignment.
The evolving regional environment therefore presents Armenia with a complex but potentially transformative moment. The key challenge is not merely navigating shifting geopolitical balances, but building the domestic institutional foundations necessary to engage effectively in a rapidly changing regional and international system.
